Best Buys at Stud for 2019
2019 will be my ninth year picking best buys at stud. I have looked at a lot of horses again this year and am not that impressed with this crop. Justify is undoubtedly the cream of the crop, but his fee of $150,000 and his daddy, both cause me to feel he is, at best, properly priced. So, no “Best Buy” there! Aside from several still running, another son of Scat Daddy is “Best of the Rest” and that is Mendelssohn. He got off to a great start but fell on hard times in the Derby. He was bumped horribly shortly after coming out of the gate. Despite that he made a decent run and got up near the leaders. Also, his jockey was mostly a turf tracker and really suffered from the slop. At $35,000 he is a good buy. Certainly a better long run buy than Justify but is he a best buy? I will think about him as I put my list together. After all, he is half to the very solid sire Into Mischief and the super race mare Beholder.
I do believe in the long run, Justify, and perhaps even Mendelssohn will be a better sires than American Pharoah, but his sales are sky-high, as were Secretariat’s until his first crop hit the tracks! He fell through the roof rather quickly. His first foal through the ring, a colt named Canadian Bound, sold for a then world record $1,500,000. He had one show in four starts, won a $1,050 and never sired a stakes winner with over 100 foals. As I have said many times, Seattle Slew, a poorly conformed bargain basement colt who sold for $17,500 is the only Triple Crown winner with a notable (in any way) tail line, and that is almost solely through AP Indy.
Looking at last year’s top picks, I can repeat, there is simply a bias in North America against Turf sires and Turf horses in general. I picked brand new sire Flintshire as my # 1 pick for 2017. He stood for $20,000 and did so again in 2018. In 2019 they have lowered him to $15,000, even though he had a fairly good year, even by my metrics. I am keeping him in my top Best Buys! Last year I moved him down but this year, I may move him back up a notch or two. I simply feel he suffers the Kittens Joy syndrome of being underpriced because his offspring are thought of as “Turf Horses”.
Now let’s look at Kitten’s Joy, who I added last year for the first time after they lowered his fee to $60,000 from $100,000. That is not going to scare me away as Kittens Joy is the LEADING SIRE in North America as I write this.
I looked hard at at old favorite Uncle Mo and decided to not put him in my top best buy sires at $150,000. But, as it turned out, they lowered his fee to $125,000. He was on my list from the time he went to stud until they doubled his fee in 2017. I then said I like him a lot but not that much.
I am sticking with that again in 2019, even at the lower fee. In 2017, while his numbers were good in the sales ring, he simply did not have the runners to excite me enough to add him back, even increasing the size of my top list from six to twelve. In 2018, he again failed to have the number of runners to excite me so he will remain on my honorable mentions list.
Now I will look at a few of my other favorites.
Quality Road was raised from a fee of $35,000 to $70,000 in 2018 and this year, he will stand for $150,000. Well, he was on my original list and is one of my favorites all-time. That said, I am dropping him from the Best Buys. I will think hard about him on the Honorable Mentions List!
Cairo Prince had a banner year in the sales ring and was raised from $15,000 to $25,000 in 2018. So, I left him at # 2, where he was in 2017. His runners are just beginning to catch fire and he is currently # 3 on the First Crop Sire list. As I truly expected him to be # 1, I am forced to drop him a few notches. But not far!
Curlin has dropped off a little and is no longer a top Best Buy, although he is still a very solid buy. I believe if you want a Classic winner, he is your best buy. Only Tapit would be an equal or perhaps slightly better odds-on favorite to produce a classic winner, but his fee is $225,000 (down from $300,000 last year).
This year I am adding leading first crop sire Cross Traffic as he seems like a standout. Sorry I missed him earlier. At $25,000, he is definitely a best buy!!
And, here they are for 2019 with 2018 and 2017 rankings on my list in ( ):
# 1 Mastery (# 1, New)
# 2 Candy Ride (# 3, # 2)
# 3 Lookin’ at Lucky (# 8, honorable mention 2017)
# 4 Cairo Prince (#2, 1) need a year to see how his 3YO’s run.
# 5 Kitten’s Joy (# 4, New to my list 2018 – lowered fee. Had a great year)
# 6 Flintshire (# 6, # 1) still confident. Sales did improve!
# 7 Cross Traffic (new) spectacular first crop!!!
# 8 Arrogate (# 10, new)
# 9 Brody’s Cause (#10, New to my list in 2018 – missed him)
# 10 Palace Malice (# 11, New to my list in 2018)
# 11 Gio Ponti (#12, new in 2018)
# 12 Quality Road (#7, 4 quadrupled fee in 2 years but he is my all-time fav!).
As you may notice, there is no first year sires on my list for the first time ever. I plan to add a couple to my Honorable Mentions. That list will be out hopefully by Jan 5 and will be considerably expanded.
Note: Originally posted on Facebook on December 20, 2018, exactly as presented here!
thoroughbredcorner By Bill Floyd 